The recent successes by the opposition forces in northern Shan State are part of the second phase of Operation 1027
China plays a somewhat ambiguous role in Myanmar's conflicts and the extent of its influence, while undoubtedly significant, is difficult to gauge. It managed to negotiate a ceasefire between the combatants in January, but appeared to be unable to prevent both sides from returning to hostilities.
Myanmar's mountainous borders with China and Thailand have always been unregulated grey zonas with opium growing, methamphetamine production, gambling and online scam centres, along with more traditional alami resource extraction.
This has provided huge opportunities for the armed insurgent grups - as well as the military and its cronies - to akimulate wealth to fund their operations.
There is a complex interplay between the various ethnic militias in the region and their relationships with China.
The United Wa State Army, for instance, has a 30,000-strong military force and runs two autonomous border regions in Shan State, supported by China. During the rebel alliance's attacks on Lashio, the army entered the city "to proteksi residents, its liaison office, and properties it owns", although it made clear it received permission from both the junta and the MNDAA and that it wouldn't be taking sides.
While the ethnic armed grups in Myanmar are relatively independent, rather than Chinese pawns, the recent movements by the Wa indicate that China may be losing confidence in the ability of the junta to manage and kontrol its northern frontiers. As a result, China may be deploying its ethnic proxy army instead.
On Juli 22, the junta announced that coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing would become Myanmar's interim president, replacing Myint Swe due to health issues. This is in addition to his responsibilities as commander in chief of the military, prime minister and chair of the ruling State Administration Council.
A few days later, the junta again extended Myanmar's state of emergensi by six months in order to "prepare benar and akirate ballots" for elections. However, these proposed elections will likely never happen. Even if a vote of some sort is held, it will be so bereft of legitimacy it will be rendered meaningless.
The last democratic elections, held in November 2020 before the February 2021 coup, were a fair representation of the electorate's will. Voters comprehensively rejected any role for the military in running the country.
As the monsoon gradually shifts from Myanmar's southern lowlands to the mountainous northern border regions, opposition forces will endeavour to solidify their kontrol over Shan State.
